Our 2016 Local Jacksonville Real Estate Market Predictions

About every year I make predictions for the upcoming year, and like every year past... some are obvious and some are a little more "out there".  So without further delay:

1. Prices are going up in the under $250k category.  
   1. We see houses that were $140k a year ago and are now $170k+
   2. Well priced homes are selling in days, not months.  
   3. Multiple offers are common under $200k when priced aggressively from the date of initial listing.
2. Mortgage rates are going up. Duh.
   1. Fed fund rate already increased by a quarter point in late December 2015.
   2. Projections from most economists point towards a consistent and slow increase.
3. Deals are available when buying! ....in the non-updated house
   1. EVERYONE wants a move in ready home.
   2. FEW have the liquid cash available to make the updates needed when buying / selling.
   3. FEW want to go through the renovation / living in a construction zone.
   4. This is all why the non-updated home can usually be purchased for less than market value if you wait it out.  
4. Boomerang buyers are back:  Foreclosed / Bankruptcy / Short Sellers
   1. 2 years after one of these financial hits is recorded on your credit report and you can buy again.   
   2. Most went through these financial hardships from 2009 - 2013 timeline, so we are right at the point they are getting back into the market in big numbers.  
5. Emergence of the Smaller Builder
   1. Large national home builders want 100+ home communities and not much land is available within a currently acceptable commute for most Jacksonville / St Augustine home owners.
   2. Smaller builders are picking up smaller lots for 1-5 homes for "infill" in the more convenient locations.
6. More Remodeling activity
   1. We are seeing a pickup of remodeling in the hottest of locations:  Ponte Vedra, Atlantic Beach, San Marco, Avondale, Ortega, etc.  
   2. Aging homes in many of these areas are due for a big update as much of this activity was on hold over the past decade.
7. First Time Home Buyer segment grows
   1. 40% 1st timers is the standard in the market, but we have been seeing less than 30% market share from 1st timers
   2. Growing demand as the millenials start pairing up and growing families.
8. Buyers pickier than ever
   1. Sellers will need to remodel outdated homes if they intend to sell for top dollar
   2. Dated homes will need to be priced accordingly to attract buyers
   3. Buyers want clean and crisp

9. A new president will be elected...  This is a certainty.